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Editor's Corner |
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The Circle of (Computing) Life and the Second PC Revolution Once upon a time, computing was centralized in gigantic mainframe multi-user systems. End users accessed the computing resources through "dumb terminals" and had little control over installing or configuring applications. Data was stored on the mainframe. In the earliest days of computing, the huge machines were so costly that most organizations couldn't afford to buy one of their own, so they rented time on a mainframe that physically resided in another location. The problem with this was that the companies had no control over those machines, on which they depended for critical business functions.
Then along came minicomputers, which were smaller and more affordable. Unlike the big mainframes, which filled entire rooms, their cabinets could be as small as a large refrigerator. And whereas the mainframes cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, a mini could be had for $15,000 to $20,000 (on the low end). They were still multi-user systems. Now companies that weren't huge corporations were able to own their own machines, which resided on their premises. This was considered a major step forward.
However, these systems still didn't offer the kind of flexibility and individual control that users wanted and needed to be more productive. So the next development in the evolution of computing was the microcomputer, which came to be called the "personal computer" or PC when IBM chose that name to market their single user systems. Early microcomputers were also sold by Apple and Radio Shack. These desktop computers allowed users to have more control over their machines and be less dependent on the data center.
Today, we seem to have come full circle and computers have gotten about as small and personal as they can functionally get. Smart phones are full fledged computers that are orders of magnitude more powerful than the first mainframes and can be held in the palm of your hand. But as they always say, change is inevitable (except from vending machines). Computing has slowly become more centralized again, with network-based storage, companies deploying server-based applications, delivery of virtualized operating systems to thin clients, and so forth. And now we're rushing headlong back to the off-premises computing situation from whence we came - only now we're calling it "the cloud."
And make no mistake about it, the cloud is the next big thing, whether we like it or not (and responses to my surveys indicate that most users and many IT pros don't like it at all). Microsoft has made the public commitment that they are "all in." Google is hard at work on a cloud-based operating system. IBM, Amazon, Cisco, Citrix, Novell, Oracle, VMware, Red Hat, Sun - all the "big names" in the business have their heads in the cloud to one degree or another. And a plethora of smaller, lesser known players are hoping to make their fortunes there.
http://www.wxpnews.com/4CHNK9/100810-Cloud-Computing-Players
But how does the cloud really differ from the old mainframe time-sharing system? Certainly, the technology itself is far more powerful and far more advanced, and the networks are faster and more reliable. And the hardware on which the cloud infrastructure is based is arguably less expensive, thus (in theory, at least) reducing the cost to the client companies.
And it's difficult to deny that having every user in complete control of his/her computing assets causes problems. When users can install their own programs, they can introduce viruses and malware, or just do it incorrectly and mess up the system. When users store their data on their own machines, they can accidentally delete it or leave sensitive files unencrypted. Total user control makes for a security risk and a tech support nightmare. Is it any wonder that IT departments have pulled back from that model?
But with the momentum now moving in the other direction, will we go too far? It makes perfect sense to use some cloud services but current thinking is that eventually all of our apps and data will be "out there." Will it happen? With all the big money folks behind it, I'd say yes - but I don't think it's going to happen quite as quickly as those with a vested interest in it are hoping. There's still a lot of resistance in the business world as well as among consumers. Nonetheless, eventually we'll all be dragged kicking and screaming into the cloud.
My real question, though, is how long will it last? Just as inevitable as the cloud is the second PC revolution, when companies and individuals rebel against having someone else control their data and user experiences and technology companies see that the next big opportunity is to market a "new" concept: decentralized computing. Just as the fashion world moves from short skirts to long, wide ties to narrow, the computing world will move again from the cloud back to the datacenter and to the desktop.
The likely answer is that this trend will emerge after the first two or three cloud disasters. When a major company has its confidential data exposed or lost, when a bunch of big organizations are brought to a standstill for hours or days because of a connectivity outage that keeps them from connecting to their resources in the cloud, when there's a big loss of money (or even lives, if an organization impacted by the cloud's limitations deals in healthcare or critical infrastructure) - that's when we'll see the second PC revolution begin.
What do you think? Am I wrong about the inevitability of cloud computing? Or am I wrong about the corresponding inevitability of a second PC revolution? If I'm right about both, how long will it take for each to happen? Will we be fully "cloudified" in five years? Ten? Will we be sick of the cloud in another five? Or will the cloud providers find a way to overcome the seeming limitations and keep us in the cloud for the foreseeable future? If ubiquitous 50Mbps Internet connectivity becomes a reality, would that change the game and make the cloud a "keeper?" Will that level of connectivity be widely available, at a reasonable cost, anytime soon? Where will this leave all those rural users who are still struggling with their 56Kbps modems today? We invite you to discuss these topics in our forum at
http://www.wxpnews.com/4CHNK9/100810-Forum-Discussion
Follow-up: Internet Security Training
In last week's editorial, I broached the question: should Internet security training be mandated - either by the government or by company policy? And how about training and licensing for IT pros?
Some readers spoke up in favor of testing for IT pros, but didn't make it clear whether they were talking about a government testing/licensing program or what companies should do before hiring people for IT positions. There's also a big difference between saying what companies should and saying they must do it.
Doug1947 brought up a good point when he said: "A good way to lose control is to attempt to impose control" and noted that regulations on other industries have driven those industries overseas. And Piolenc pointed out another angle: "Instant, total surveillance and control of online activity! No more anonymous speech - if you say anything that those in power don't like, you are identified as the speaker and your credentials are revoked. Licensing would simply end Internet freedom, probably forever."
Joe A., in email, took this approach: "I seem to recall an argument being made in past issues to treat Internet connections as a utility, much like cable, phone, power, etc. Should we also be licensed to use these services?" I guess the better analogy would be to the public roadways, because you don't generally pose a risk to other people by your use of cable, phone and power. However, your Internet use does have ramifications for others, as does your use of your car on the road. Note that I'm not arguing in favor of licensing Internet users, just pointing out what that argument would be.
Another email, from Mike C., said, "When you said 'But it would be much easier for the government to enact laws requiring employers to provide training for Internet users', I had to reread to make certain I was understanding your statement. I am all for government control when it involves something that is beyond the means or understanding of a business/people....but this is something that, to me, comes down to a personal choice as to whether to do or not to do. To have yet another law/policy that basically takes away the responsibility from those who should have the right to choose what they deem necessary for their business also takes away the rights to do as one wants insofar as being able to decide how their business is operated."
Hey, Mike, I agree with you! Just because I think it would be easier doesn't mean I think it would be the right thing to do.
Thanks to all of those who participated in this week's discussion!
 'Til next week,
Deb Shinder, Editor
PS: Did you know this newsletter has a sister publication called Win7News? You can subscribe here, and tell your friends:
http://www.wxpnews.com/4CHNK9/100518-Win7News
And for IT pros, there's our "big sister," WServer News, at
http://www.wxpnews.com/4CHNK9/100518-WserverNews
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Quotes of the Week
"The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it." - H. L. Mencken
"Advice to children crossing the street: Damn the lights. Watch the cars. The lights ain't never killed nobody." - Moms Mabley
"The knack of flying is learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss." - Douglas Adams |
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NEW! VIPRE® Antivirus Premium 4.0
VIPRE is the only antivirus software that does not slow down your PC, and now it comes with integrated firewall!
VIPRE Antivirus Premium 4.0
- Does not slow down your PC
- New antivirus + antispyware engine with firewall
- Advanced anti-rootkit technology
- Cutting-edge Proactive Protection
- Full email protection: Outlook and Windows Mail
- Ideal for Netbooks that need malware protection
- No automatic credit card charge each year!
Try VIPRE Antivirus Premium now for 30-days FREE!
http://www.wxpnews.com/4CHNK9/100727-VIPRE-Antivirus
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